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NBA: Orlando still favored, just by less in Game 4
2009-06-11

The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Speaking of which, Thursday’s Game 4 brings a bit lower pointspread (Orlando -3) and a bit higher total (201). See how bettors have reacted to these oddsmakers adjustments on the BETTING TRENDS page.

Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)

This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as Sportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.

Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.

For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.

Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.

Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.

Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.

Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.

NBA: 25 Top NBA Finals Trends
2009-06-03

The 2009 NBA Finals might not offer the matchup that everyone expected, but it should still be a competitive series, and one that commands attention from bettors everywhere. Besides all of the specific key matchup info that we have available for you on the GAME MATCHUP for this intriguing series, take a look at this list of 25 Top NBA Finals’ Betting Angles we’ve put together for you. They are broken up into several categories. After soaking this up, head over to the LIVE ODDS page to get in on the action yourself.

EASTERN/WESTERN CONFERENCE TRENDS

* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has won seven straight NBA Finals games against the spread after the West had won eight of the prior 10.

* Overall, since ’97, the WESTERN CONFERENCE holds a 37-29 SU edge, but the ATS series is tied 32-32-2.

* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has only been the FAVORITE in 21 of the last 67 NBA Finals’ games. Their record in that role: 18-3 SU & 12-9 ATS.

* The WESTERN CONFERENCE has accumulated a 33-10 SU & 22-19-2 ATS mark as chalk in the NBA Finals since ’97.

FAVORITE/UNDERDOG TRENDS

* Dating back to ’97, ROAD TEAMS playing as FAVORITES or in pick em’ spreads are 12-2 SU & 9-4-1 ATS.

* The UNDERDOG team won four of the six games in the 2008 NBA Finals against the spread.

* SMALL HOME FAVORITES have been a great bet in the NBA Finals, as those laying 4-1/2 points or less are 18-4 SU & 15-7 ATS since ’97.

* It’s been a dangerous proposition to lay big points in the NBA Finals of late. Dating back to 2000, FAVORITES of 7-1/2 points or more are 9-3 SU but just 2-9-1 ATS.

OVER/UNDER TRENDS

* UNDER has been the total of choice in NBA Finals games of late, 10-6 over the course of the last three series’.

* Thursday’s Game 1 of the ’09 Finals between Orlando and the Lakers will be the first Finals’ game in over 12 years with a total of 200 or more.

* In the last 20 NBA Finals’ games with posted totals of 190 or above, the OVER has been the winning total 12 times, as opposed to 8 UNDER’s.

SERIES GAME NUMBER TRENDS

* The HOME TEAM is 5-1 SU & ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals dating back to 2003.

* Game 1 of the NBA Finals has gone UNDER the total five straight times.

* The HOME TEAM is also 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in Game 2 of the NBA Finals since ’04, with the last four teams owning home court advantage in the series going up 2-0.

* Although HOME TEAMS own a 4-1 SU edge in the L5 Game 3’s of the NBA Finals, the ROAD TEAMS have swept the last three ATS.

* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has owned Game 4 of the NBA Finals of late, going 5-1 SU & ATS since ’03.

* FAVORITES have also dominated Game 4 in the NBA Finals, 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS since ’97.

* Home court advantage virtually disappears once Game 5 of the NBA Finals arrives, as the last 18 games from then on have been split 9-9 SU with ROAD TEAMS owning a distinct 12-6 ATS edge.

* OVER has been the correct total wager in nine of the last 13 NBA Finals Game 5’s and beyond.

SEED NUMBER TRENDS

* There have been three teams in the NBA Finals playing as seeds #3 or lower since ’02. They have performed very well: At home, those teams are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in that span. On the road, they are 5-4 SU & 5-2-2 ATS.

* #1 seeds have had some trouble protecting the home court vs. non-#1 seeds, just 3-7 SU & 2-6-2 ATS since ’01 in the NBA Finals. However, on the road they are 6-1 ATS in that same time frame.

SCORING TRENDS

* The benchmark point total for HOME TEAMS to reach is 96 points in the NBA Finals. When doing so, they are 26-5 SU & 18-11-2 ATS since ’97.

* When HOME TEAMS have eclipsed the 92-point mark in the NBA Finals, OVER the total is 23-9 since ’97. When they don’t score 93 points or more, the UNDER is 31-3.

* For ROAD TEAMS, the magic-mark seems to be 93 points. When they reach that total, they are 14-7 SU & 19-1-1 ATS since ‘98.

* Although a point total for any team of 80 or less this year seems unlikely between the Magic and Lakers, past ROAD TEAMS that have failed to eclipse the 80-point mark are just 2-16 SU & ATS in the NBA Finals since ’97.

NBA: Can Orlando closeout Cavs at home? (8:35 PM ET, TNT)
2009-05-29

From sweaty t-shirts printed, to songs from Cold World and Non Phixion, the story is all the same – Refuse to Lose. That is what the Cleveland Cavaliers did at home and they live to play again in Game 6 in Orlando. The chief architect was a familiar face, LeBron James and while he deserves the king’s share of credit, he hardly did it by himself this time. His team will look to force a deciding Game 7 contest on Monday with a win in Orlando Saturday night. The Magic opened as a 2-point favorite at Sportsbook. Follow the line and betting action right up until tip-time.
The focus on news outlets was James triple-double; however this time he had comrades in arms, who were ready to seize the moment. LeBron was also helped by the fact his coach Mike Brown, made adjustments prior to the game, which kept the Magic off-balance and could play into how long this Eastern Final continues.

Cleveland started the game with best ball movement of the series, having all five players on the floor involved and it paid immediate dividends with both Mo Williams and Delonte West making shots and restoring their confidence. Of course with Orlando, take nothing for granted and by halftime, the Cavaliers 17-point lead had melted faster than a Disney snow cone in June, with Cleveland up by just a single point after 24 minutes.

The third quarter was back and forth, with Orlando showing why they were 17-4 ATS playing as underdog coming into Game 5 and held slim one digit lead after three quarters.

With Cleveland 6-1 ATS in last seven games after breaking century mark in points, it was James will that did not allow his team to lose. After receiving much credit for guarding LeBron well, Orlando’s Mickael Pietrus more resembled Wally Szczerbiak trying to contain James. When LeBron needed to score he did, when he needed to find open shooter, he did and this time his teammates responded.

Coach Brown added a new offense wrinkle that widened the area James had at the top of the key, giving him more freedom to roam than a person wanting breakfast at dinner time at IHOP. This spacing prevented effective Orlando double-teams and set up Cleveland shooters to “walk into” shots in rhythm. Because of how effective this adjustment worked, coach Ron Jeremy, whoops, Stan Van Gundy will have to come up with an answer to counter, otherwise this series heads back to Cleveland.

The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover four of their last five contests against the spread since 2007, winning by almost six points a game (5.8). Coach Brown and James, have their fingers crossed the Cavs guards have rediscovered shooting touch and reserve Daniel Gibson can come off the bench and supply double digits again. Cleveland is a two-point underdog at Sportsbook.com, with a total of 193, easily the highest of the series. The Cavs are 14-4 ATS after scoring 110 points or more and seemed resigned to the fact they have to outscore Orlando, rather than out-defend them.

This will be the Magic’s second opportunity in the postseason to clinch series at Amway Arena, having failed in same spot against Boston. Orlando is 10-1 ATS at home after a loss by 10 points or more and 14-2 against the spread in downtown Orlando after allowing 110 points or more two straight games. The Magic will have to bring sterner defense, as Cavs shot 50 percent from the field and the three-balls. Dwight Howard needs more than 10 attempts and he has to be more assertive on offensive glass then snagging three boards.

Rashard Lewis can’t be so passive and Rafer Alston can’t miss nine of 10 shots. Coach Van Gundy must talk about ball movement, since Orlando had as many assists (12) as LeBron did.

Game 6 should be fascinating on TNT starting at 8:35 Eastern and totals players; here is a sterling system to consider - Play OVER when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points in the sixth game of a playoff series. (22-4, 84.6 percent L13Y)

NBA: Lakers stir pot, try to chew up Nuggets (9:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-05-29

It turned out to be true; Kobe Bryant of the Lakers really does have teammates that want to win and are willing to put forth the effort to do so. Because Kobe finally was comforted with company, Los Angeles is within one game of return trip to NBA Finals, though not without a little controversy along the way, which makes for good playoff fodder. After reading more about this Game 6 Western Conference Finals encounter, be sure to head right over to the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for the latest info to make sure you’re on the right side of the wagering action.

An anonymous member of the Denver Nuggets told the Denver Post, "The Lakers paid $50,000 to win that game," he said. "They got their money's worth." He was referring to 25 grand in fines David Stern’s minions handed out to coach Phil Jackson and the Lakers organization for comments after Game 4.

Denver’s George Karl lamented essentially, the squeaky wheel gets taken care of and the Lakers got the benefit of calls for critical Game 5. Evidently Karl has no sense of history, since this coaching showmanship has gone on since Eddie Gottlieb’s Philadelphia Warriors defeated the Chicago Staggs to win first ever NBA title in 1947.

Having watched the entire game with no sound (don’t ask, just trust it made sense to me), I never got the sense the officiating was one-sided. I did however take note that Denver stopped taking the ball to the rim in the fourth quarter and was 5 for 21 shooting in last 12 minutes. I also noticed the strong interior defense of Denver completely fell apart in the fourth quarter, as the Lakers ran screens to set up isolation plays and scored six baskets that I recall within three feet of basket.

The first 17 minutes of the game was played like any regular season game, as neither team was emotionally involved, until both teams had manufactured exciting dunks, which revved up the crowd and the emotions of players.

Lamar Odom, showed why he can be the difference between L.A. being among the best teams, to NBA champs when he adds 19 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocks. Derek Fisher tossed in a dozen points and though he saw limited minutes, Andrew Bynum contributed when on the floor. In fact, the Lakers bench outscored the Denver reserves 34-26, which is telling, with final margin of victory nine points.

Denver is 17-7 ATS revenging a road loss and is backed into corner. The Nuggets never matched the same intensity they had the first two games in La-La Land, even as they built seven-point lead midway thru the third quarter. This was proven as they had no answer to blunt Lakers rush that saw them run off 23 of next 28 points to wrestle control of contest. The Lakers finally challenged Karl’s troops with unfamiliar style, playing intense defense.

The Lakers enter Game 6 as five-point underdogs and are 8-3 ATS when Sportsbook.com or another oddsmaker places them in that position. Only one game has exceeded the total in West Finals and Los Angeles is 9-1 UNDER in conference finals. Denver is 7-0 against the number off a straight up loss and is 8-1 ATS as home favorites. Of the last 12 games the Nuggets have played against winning teams, 10 have gone UNDER the number.

It’s do-or-die for Carmelo Anthony and mates, and as the Lakers have shown, they don’t necessarily have the killer instinct to polish off opponent. If should be quite an atmosphere at the Pepsi Center, with Denver trying to avoid falling to 3-11 ATS when trailing in playoff series and head back to downtown Los Angeles for Sunday showdown.

NBA: Cleveland and backers in search of answers (8:35 PM ET, TNT)
2009-05-29

It’s not a great time to be a Cleveland basketball fan, because what looked like a return to the NBA Finals is in serious jeopardy. The Cavaliers situation has everything to do with what is taking place on the court, not preconceived notions. Cleveland may have one of the two best players in basketball; however the team is not as good as Orlando’s. The margin of difference is not dramatic, but it is enough to matter and Cleveland backers have four losing wagering tickets to prove it in this series. Still, the Cavs are a hefty favorite tonight and most bettors figure they’ll extend this series to a 6th game. Get the latest percentage breakdown on the BETTING TRENDS page.

So what have been the differences to this point, let’s examine.

Orlando plays an unusual style of offense; basically they have Dwight Howard as only true post player, surrounded by four perimeter players. Howard, though limited in offensive moves, has superior strength over Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao and its laughable to suggest Ben Wallace would do better job than either of those two. Howard has had his way in the paint and uses his quickness to snatch offensive rebounds and have put-backs.

When Cleveland decides to double-team Howard, this leaves open the Magic’s array of shooters, who either can make medium or long distance shots, or drive to the basket thru open lanes created by doubling-down on Howard. It is clear the Cavs players are much more comfortable double-teaming within 5-15 feet range, as compared to being spread out like Orlando forces them to do at greater distances. This leaves coach Mike Brown with a real dilemma, either drink the poison or be injected with it.

Though Mo Williams and Delonte West are normally reliable shooters, they have not been in this series, not even close. This was never more evident than in Game 4, when the Cavaliers where moving the ball crisply and players that were able to get into the teeth of Orlando defense were kicking out passes to Williams and West and neither looked like they could make a shot if the basket was 2-feet larger in diameter. West to his credit worked on isolation matchups and was effective on the block in postup situations. Unfortunately, this twosome was gruesome 0-6 beyond the arc.

Cleveland returns home, where they are 44-3 (31-16 ATS), with one of the losses coming in the East Finals. As mentioned previously, one of the most difficult challenges for a sports bettor to overcome is believing what you are seeing and letting go of paradigms. Though Cleveland had the best regular season record and breezed thru first two rounds, they were 2-8 ATS versus teams that had 70 percent or higher win percentage during the regular season and four more losses have been added during this series.

Because Orlando had never accomplished much in the postseason, they were fairly easy to dismiss going up against Cleveland. The fact is the Magic are 32-18 SU and ATS on the road and though they were hammered a couple times in the postseason, to be that strong as a visitor speaks to the team’s true value.

Also, matchups are important and seeing Orlando is 10-4 and 13-1 ATS against the Cavaliers, this proves they have the physical and physiological edge.

Sportsbook.com has Cleveland as 7.5-point favorite with total of 190. For the Cavs to force Game 6 and beyond, they have to have starters play as they have all season. Orlando has gone through shooting droughts and still managed to make enough baskets to matter, Cleveland has not. The Cavs need to find help off the bench as well, since they are being buried by Magic reserves. Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss and 17-6 against the spread if it was three points or less.

Cleveland has too often talked, instead of played in this series. Even coach Brown is living in make-believe land. “This is about as even of a series as you can ask for. They’ve just made one or two plays down the stretch more than us. But I still feel the confidence, I still feel the togetherness and I still feel like we have a chance to win this,” Brown said. Coach, I hope you know this, but it is those one or two critical plays in games that make the difference between wins and losses and your team isn’t making them, no matter how much you love each other.
Though Orlando won’t discuss it, they are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season and teams with 3-1 leads in NBA playoffs are 182-8 in league history to finish off series as winners.

The action continues on TNT starting at 8:35 Eastern.