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NBA: Boston at Milwaukee (8:00 PM ET, FSN)
2010-03-09

After spending a month taking advantage of a schedule that included some of the league’s worst teams, the Milwaukee Bucks are one game into a stretch that sends three of the NBA’s best to the Bradley Center. They already turned back the LeBron-less Cavaliers on Saturday night. Up on Tuesday are the Boston Celtics, and Bucks are a 1-point home favorite according to Sportsbook.com.

A breakout performance from the struggling Brandon Jennings helped the Bucks top the team with the league’s best record, and they’ll look for a 10th win in 11 games Tuesday night as they try to snap the Boston Celtics’ four-game winning streak.

Milwaukee (33-29, 40-21-1 ATS) was three games out of the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot as of Jan. 26, but it has gone 15-4 and even more amazing 15-3-1 ATS since then to jump into fifth place. Of the Bucks’ first 14 victories in that stretch, 13 came against the bottom nine teams in the East. Only Miami, which Milwaukee beat three times, currently owns a winning record.

Visits from Cleveland, Boston (40-21, 26-34-1 ATS) and Utah in a seven-day stretch should give the Bucks a bigger challenge, but questions remained even after their first test. Jennings scored 25 points in a 92-85 victory Saturday over the league-best Cavaliers, who gave LeBron James a night off to rest his sore ankle.

“There’ll be people saying it was a great game and there’ll be other people saying well, LeBron didn’t play, if he would have played, they would have won,” said Andrew Bogut, who had 15 points and nine rebounds. “It’s a lose-lose situation for us.” The Bucks are 18-4 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.

Milwaukee can hope Jennings’ effort is the precursor of a personal turnaround. The rookie point guard had averaged 9.9 points and shot 29.7 percent since Feb. 1 before sparking the victory over Cleveland. Just three days earlier, after shooting 2 for 12 in a win over Washington, Jennings said he wasn’t even sure if wanted to continue taking shots.

That public display of frustration didn’t please coach Scott Skiles. “Right now, I’m playing for something bigger,” Jennings said after hitting five 3-pointers against the Cavaliers. “Main thing is get to playoffs, having the city start believing in us and keep going on from there.” Milwaukee hasn’t lost a game against the spread since Feb. 17 to Houston, accumulating 9-0-1 ATS mark.

If Milwaukee ends up in the postseason for the first time since 2006, it might find itself facing the Atlantic Division-leading Celtics in the first round. Boston is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in March after going 9-11 from Jan. 14-Feb. 27, but much like during the Bucks’ winning stretch, the competition has hardly been fierce.

The Celtics’ streak has been built against the teams currently occupying then 9th-12th spots in the East, and they had to battle back to beat Washington at home on Sunday night. Boston trailed 79-66 with 6:11 remaining before responding with a 20-4 closing run to secure an 86-83 win. Ray Allen had eight of his 25 points in the decisive stretch.

“We’ve lost so many of these where we played poorly and lost,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. “It was nice to play poorly and win. I just wish we could have played the first 40 minutes, like we played the last eight.” Boston is 24-12 ATS after a win by six points or less over the last two seasons.

Boston lost its latest visit to Milwaukee last March 15 as Allen, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo combined to shoot 8 of 36. That was the Celtics’ only loss in the series’ last eight games (3-5 ATS). Kevin Garnett - who didn’t make a field goal Sunday for the first time in more than 14 years - had 25 points and nine rebounds in a 98-89 win at TD Garden on Dec. 8. Bogut had 25 points and 14 rebounds in the loss while committing a season-high seven turnovers. That was one of only three Milwaukee losses in 17 games in which Bogut has scored 20 points or more.

Sportsbook.com has the Bucks as a one-point home favorite with total of 188 and they are 11-3 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. Normally, Milwaukee and the word defense are not used in the same sentence, except for negative connotation. However, the Bucks are 10-2 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, winning by seven points per game this season. Boston definitely prefers to play at their own pace, with pale 2-12 ATS record versus teams averaging 83 or more shots a game since the beginning of the season and are 25-12 UNDER in road encounters when playing against a club with a winning record.

This Eastern Conference matchup is available in both local TV markets at 8:00 Eastern and Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this campaign.

StatFox Power Line – Milwaukee by 7

NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends 3/5-3/7
2010-03-05

I know it…it’s easy to forget about the NBA at this time of the year. March is about college basketball, right? Well, the savvy bettor acknowledges every opportunity he is given and takes advantage if the situation warrants. With that in mind, the NBA board is loaded with 26 games this weekend, at least six each day. This weekend’s Top StatFox Betting Trends piece should help you separate some of the strong plays from the weak. Read on for a look at some of the featured action over the next three days, plus the list of the top trends you’ll want to consider as you build your wagering lineup.

On Friday, the weekend is kicked off with 11 different games, two of which will make up the ESPN doubleheader. In the first one, the Cavaliers will host division rival, Detroit. For whatever reason, Cleveland was strangely NOT on TNT Thursday night so this won’t be a back-to-back situation. LeBron & Co. have won four straight games, both SU & ATS, as they begin consecutive games against Central Division foes. For the record, they are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in division play this season. The Pistons are 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in that scenario. In the late game, New Orleans and San Antonio will get together for the second time in five days, with the Hornets looking to avenge a 106-92 loss on Monday at home. The Spurs are still trying to figure things out this season and despite being 10-games over .500, are just 7-14 ATS in their L21 games. Elsewhere, the red-hot Bucks will be in Washington, sporting an 18-3-1 ATS mark in their L22 games, including a 100-87 win over the Wizards on Wednesday. Also, watch for the Lakers in Charlotte, and the Mavericks, winners of their last nine games, hosting Sacramento.

On Saturday, there are nine games to choose from, including several with teams in back-to-back scenarios. Two that I mentioned earlier, the Bucks and Cavaliers, will go head-to-head in Milwaukee. HC Scott Skiles’ team boasts a 10-6 SU & 12-3-1 ATS mark on zero days rest while the Cavs are just 6-9 ATS. Also on Saturday, Atlanta will visit Miami. The Heat are scuffling a bit again, having lost four straight ATS. They are also just 12-17 ATS at home, plus 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS on the back end of back-to-back’s. In Memphis, the Spurs will come calling, with the Grizzlies trailing San Antonio by four games in the Western Conference standings.

Sunday is once again national TV day in the NBA, with three games set for the tube. On ABC at 2:30 PM ET, the Lakers will take on the Magic in Orlando. Obviously, the Lakers are in good shape in the West, leading the conference standings by 5-1/2 games entering the weekend over Dallas. However, HC Phil Jackson has to be concerned about this trend going forward: LA LAKERS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 94.9, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 1*). The Magic are playing well again and have lost just six times at home this season. A bit later on ESPN, Boston will host Washington. The Celtics are not playing well of late but did turn back Charlotte by 24 points on Wednesday and could be ready to turn the corner. Wrapping up the night are Portland and Denver. The Blazers boast a 4-1/2 game lead for the 8th and final playoff spot out West and have come alive by winning five of six games. They will have been off since Wednesday and boast a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS mark when playing on 3+ days rest.

Now, here’s a look at those top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider in your wagering action this weekend:

Friday, 3/5/2010
(807) NEW YORK vs. (808) TORONTO
NEW YORK is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp. scored >=100 points over last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 105.4, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(809) BOSTON vs. (810) PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) at home vs. good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/g over the L3 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 95.7, OPPONENT 106.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(813) ORLANDO vs. (814) NEW JERSEY
ORLANDO is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 106.5, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(813) ORLANDO vs. (814) NEW JERSEY
ORLANDO is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) on Friday nights this season. The average score was ORLANDO 93.5, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(815) SACRAMENTO vs. (816) DALLAS
DALLAS is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was DALLAS 101.5, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 3/6/2010
(503) ATLANTA vs. (504) MIAMI
ATLANTA is 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 91.6, OPPONENT 93.3 - (Rating = 3*)

(505) NEW JERSEY vs. (506) NEW YORK
NEW JERSEY is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 92.3, OPPONENT 107 - (Rating = 4*)

(513) CLEVELAND vs. (514) MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 95.3, OPPONENT 102 - (Rating = 1*)

(517) INDIANA vs. (518) PHOENIX
PHOENIX is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) vs. poor teams outscored by 3+ PPG in 2nd half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 121.9, OPPONENT 106.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 3/7/2010
(803) LA LAKERS vs. (804) ORLANDO
LA LAKERS are 23-8 UNDER (+14.2 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 103.1, OPPONENT 93.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) WASHINGTON vs. (808) BOSTON
BOSTON is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ PPG this season. The average score was BOSTON 99.7, OPPONENT 95.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) WASHINGTON vs. (808) BOSTON
WASHINGTON is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 93.8, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 4*)

(811) PORTLAND vs. (812) DENVER
DENVER is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DENVER 107.6, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 1*)

NBA: Cavaliers at Celtics Betting Matchup
2010-02-26

The Cleveland Cavaliers ended their three game losing streak with a 105-95 non-cover over New Orleans Tuesday, next up is to a end losing skid that goes back years. Cleveland has made nine trips to Boston and has come up on the short end of the score each time. The last time the Cavs (44-14, 28-29-1 ATS) won at TD Garden was Jan. 3, 2007 and they are 6-3 ATS in those visits, which is little consolation unless you are a sports bettor. Cleveland is favored at Sportsbook.com, making it an interesting decision for those wagering.

There has been a great deal of doom and gloom surrounding Cleveland’s recent slide and the fact they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven, but a certain high profile Cavs player tries to put things into perspective.

“There are 82 games in the regular season. You’ll have ups and downs,” said LeBron James. “We’ve had way more ups than downs. We have the best record in the Eastern Conference and one of the best records in the league. You can go two or three games where you don’t win a game. That’s not our worries.”

Cleveland’s recent struggles have had to do with defense. Coach Mike Brown’s squad prior to last game had allowed 100 or more points in five of previous six contests. Before this, the Cavs surrendered that many points over a span of 26 games, showing the decline in effort. They will seek reversal and are 8-4 ATS off a victory.

Like anything in life, it could be worse, like being a loyal Boston Celtics (36-19, 21-33-1 ATS) bettor. Boston has won four of its last five, but for Celtics backers, betting the C’s is similar to getting a hot stock tip that the Hummer is coming back strong, with 8-18-1 ATS record since Dec. 27.

General Manager Danny Ainge was being barbequed in Boston until he made the bold moves to bring in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, which restored Celtics pride and brought a championship. This would have never happened had Boston lost the top pick in the draft in the lottery, which would have brought Kevin Durant and the Celtics would more likely resemble Oklahoma City, than the current model.

Like most GM’s in the NBA, do one thing right and you have a free pass for years. Ainge thought Rasheed Wallace would be good fit for the green and white and he probably more than any other player exemplifies what is wrong with Boston this season and in part explains why they are 3-8 ATS off a SU win.

No question injuries have played a part in Boston’s season and Paul Pierce is doubtful for this evening. The Celtics are 6-18-1 ATS at home and 1-7-1 ATS with a day between contests.

Sportsbook.com has Cleveland as 1.5-point faves and they are 7-3 ATS with one day of rest and they are 5-1-1 OVER this month after scoring 100 or more points. Boston has covered 17 of last 25 Thursday assignments and is 20-8 UNDER on this day of the week going back even further.

This confrontation of Eastern powers begins just after 8:00 in the East time zone and the home team is 16-1 SU, though just 8-8-1 ATS in previous 17 meetings. The StatFox Power Line shows the wrong team is favored: Boston by 1